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CoreLogic Reports Estimates Commercial Flood and Wind Loss for Hurricane Barry
August 16th, 2019 by Susan Smith
David Smith, Senior Director Model Development at CoreLogic, spoke with GISCafe Voice about CoreLogic’s recent announcement of residential and commercial flood and wind loss estimates for Hurricane Barry before the event occurred. According to this data analysis from the company, flood loss for residential and commercial properties in Louisiana is estimated to be between $200 million and $400 million which includes both storm surge and inland flooding. Insured flood loss from private insurers is estimated at less than $100 million. Wind losses are estimated to be an additional $300 million to $500 million. In total, insured flood and wind losses, excluding National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) losses, are between $300 million and $600 million.
CoreLogic® is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. This information is directly drawn from company materials:
Insured residential and commercial flood loss covered by the NFIP is estimated to be between $100 million and $200 million. Uninsured flood loss is estimated to be approximately $100 million. Specifically, less than 20 percent of residential flood loss is uninsured. In Louisiana, approximately 500,000 total residential and commercial property policies are in force through the NFIP. Insured loss represents the amount insurers will pay to cover damages. Unlike wind loss, which is covered by a standard homeowners policy, for residential properties flood is a separate coverage which is not mandatory outside the designated Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs).
This analysis includes residential homes and commercial properties, including contents and business interruption and does not include broader economic loss from the storm. The inland flood analysis is based on the rainfall for 72 hours ending on Monday, July 15, and thus excludes the rainfall from a separate weather system in the days leading up to Hurricane Barry’s landfall.
How did your estimates for Hurricane Barry compare with the actual damage done by wind and flood loss?
Losses often take at least several months to develop and to be reported – so it’s too early to tell how well our estimates compare.
How was the data gathered able to assist in making preparations for the event, if at all?
The day before landfall, we issued an analysis highlighting the number of properties in areas of extreme, very high, high, and moderate flood risk, by metropolitan area in Louisiana. This type of information can help raise awareness and it can help risk managers and property owners understand where the impacts are likely to be most significant.
How was the usage of PxPoint™, the structure- and parcel-level geocoding engine valuable in the tracking of the changing data?
Locating each building as accurately as possible is essential when modeling flood, as the levels of impact can change dramatically over distances of 10 or 20 feet. The structure- and parcel-level geocoding that PxPoint™ provides represent the state of the art in this regard.
As the North Atlantic Hurricane Model is not updated that often (biennially) when does that data get entered and how do you ensure that they are getting the most up-to-date data?
As events occur between our model updates, we develop specific footprints for wind, storm surge, and rainfall-driven flooding for each event, as we did for Barry. Data and new understanding about the science or on building performance that is significant is then worked into the next model update.
Who gets to view the data gathered? Is it only visible to clients or is there a central place where residents may see a version that may help them decide how to proceed?
We make a lot of the information and analyses we develop publicly available on our Hazard HQ™ website and through press releases. For our clients we are able to provide more specific analyses, including estimated property-level impacts leveraging all of the property characteristic and reconstruction cost data we have in addition to our natural hazard loss modeling.
Do you see people taking out more insurance policies as a result of this data?
Some people likely will, as events such as this do serve as wake up calls. I’d temper that a little with the fact that the overall impact of Barry is likely to be quite a bit smaller than for say, the 2016 flooding around Baton Rouge. A lot of the flood damage is likely to be within SFHAs (Special Flood Hazard Areas), where many properties are already covered for flood – so it’s not as loud of a wakeup call as an event having really widespread flood damage outside the SFHAs.
The U.S. Inland Flood Model models all sources of precipitation-driven flooding including riverine, stream, off-plain, and flash flooding. It delivers a comprehensive analytic view of the risk, utilizing widespread coverage of hydrologic and hydraulic data that reflects regional flooding and drainage patterns. As flood risk evolves due to urbanization and change in baseline stream and sea levels, the flood risk methodology from CoreLogic is designed to stay abreast of the latest flood risk data and research, ensuring continuity of risk insights into the future.
The CoreLogic North Atlantic Hurricane Model includes improved location risk and estimation through its robust stochastic event set, high-resolution hazard modeling, component-level vulnerability, and usage of PxPoint™, the structure- and parcel-level geocoding engine. With detailed and rigorously validated model outputs, the model provides the ability to calculate damage contributions from wind and storm surge, providing a transparent way of looking at loss as well as to obtain a better understanding of capital adequacy for the separate or combined perils of hurricane winds and coastal storm surge flooding. The model offers a complete view of the risk for all perils and sub-perils. The North Atlantic Hurricane Model is updated biennially and has been certified by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) since the inception of the process in 1997.
CoreLogic’s natural hazard risk information center, Hazard HQ™, at www.hazardhq.com offers access to the most up-to-date Hurricane Barry storm data and to see reports from previous storms.
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