The study by Civil and Environmental Engineering Professor Bilal Ayyub, Haralamb Braileanu and Naeem Qureshi, of the Clark School of Engineering's Center for Technology and Systems Management, looks at possible long term effects of projected sea level rise on Washington, D.C. real-estate property and government infrastructure. They conclude that over the next 100 years, continuing sea level rise could cause damages of more than $24.6 billion to Washington's commercial property, museums, and government agencies.
The study, "Prediction and Impact of Sea Level Rise on Properties and Infrastructure of Washington, D.C.," appears in the November 2012 issue of Risk Analysis, published by the Society for Risk Analysis.
Current trends and predicted increases suggest the nation's capital is likely to face flooding and infrastructure damage brought about by sea level rise linked to thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of global ice sheets caused by global warming.
"Climate change not only results in increasing the sea level but also the annual rate and intensity of storms," says Ayyub. "Our loss predictions at high sea levels are partly intended to account for these extreme storms. However, due to lack of information available to us, they underestimate direct losses by not considering, for example, underground utilities, or including economic valuations of interruption of business and government operations."
Bolling, FBI, IRS
Using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, data from government agencies and real-estate listings for property values, the University of Maryland researchers compared their results to models on sea level rise generated by authoritative international bodies and experts.
The results, based on what the authors say may be an optimistic model, show that the current rate of sea level rise in Washington, D.C., is about 3.16 millimeters per year. At the low levels of increase expected in the near future, sea level rise would lead to a minimal loss of city area. However, if sea level rises 0.1 meters by the year 2043, flooding about 103 properties and other infrastructure, damages would cost the city about $2.1 billion. Bolling Air Force Base would have 23 buildings impacted.
If sea level rise were to reach 5.0 meters over the next 100 years, the authors warn of significant damages, in excess of $24.6 billion, to commercial buildings, military installations, museums and government agencies, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Justice Department, the Internal Revenue Service, the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Education.
Extreme Weather Effects
While a long-term rise of 5.0 meters is considered unlikely, it may represent storm surges and waves created by extreme storms such as Hurricane Sandy, Tropical Storm Isabel in 2003, and the high tides and rains in April 2011, which triggered waterfront flooding in the city and Northern Virginia.
The study recommends that "Decisions must be made in the near future by lawmakers or city planners on how to reduce the impact of and adapt to sea level rise. Cost-effective methods to deal with sea level rise should be developed, and long-term solutions that extend well into this millennium are necessary."
The full study is available http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01710.x/full.
The University of Maryland is a public research university located in the city of College Park just outside Washington, D.C. The University of Maryland was founded in 1856 and is the flagship institution of the University System of Maryland. As a Public Ivy institution, it has a fall 2010 enrollment of more than 37,000 students, over 100 undergraduate majors and 120 graduate programs. Its Center for Technology and Systems Management, directed by Professor Bilal Ayyub was founded in 1996 to leverages the expertise of both in-house experts and external associates to offer the capabilities for making intelligent decisions in areas of systems engineering that encompasses functional modeling, technology forecasting and assessment, human and organizational factors, and expert opinion elicitation; reliability, risk, statistical and decision studies that include risk analysis and management, risk-based regulation development, risk profiling, modeling and analysis, risk-based decision making, multi-criteria ranking and decision making, as well as failure, crash and accident investigation including forensic engineering; and project management that includes scheduling with network optimization and equilibrium problems. http://www.ctsm.umd.edu
About the A. James Clark School of Engineering
The Clark School of Engineering, situated on the rolling, 1,500-acre University of Maryland campus in College Park, Md., is one of the premier engineering schools in the U.S., with graduate and undergraduate education programs ranked in or near the Top 20. In 2012, the Clark School was ranked 14th in the world by the Institute of Higher Education and Center for World-Class Universities in its Academic Ranking of World Universities. Three faculty members affiliated with the Clark School were inducted into the National Academy of Engineering in 2010.
The school, which offers 13 graduate programs and 12 undergraduate programs, including degree and certification programs tailored for working professionals, is home to one of the most vibrant research programs in the country. The Clark School garnered research awards of $171 million last year. With emphasis in key areas such as energy, nanotechnology and materials, bioengineering, robotics, communications and networking, life cycle and reliability engineering, project management, intelligent transportation systems and aerospace, the Clark School is leading the way toward the next generations of engineering advances.
Visit the Clark School homepage at www.eng.umd.edu.
SOURCE A. James Clark School of Engineering
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