CoreLogic Data Shows 1.8 Million Homes in 13 Western US States at Severe Risk of Wildfire

California has the most homes at risk and the highest reconstruction cost value 

October 26, 2016 - According to new data released today by CoreLogic, 1.8 million single-family homes across 13 states in the western U.S. are currently designated as Extreme or High risk of wildfire damage, representing a combined total reconstruction cost value (RCV) of almost $500 billion. An additional 27 million properties, with an estimated RCV of $6.7 trillion, fall into the Moderate or Low risk category.

The CoreLogic Wildfire Risk analysis designates risk levels as Extreme, High, Moderate and Low based on a numeric risk score ranging from 1 to 100 assigned to individual properties. This score indicates the level of susceptibility to wildfire, as well as the risk associated with the property being located in close proximity to adjacent high-risk properties or areas. This proximity designation is important since wildfire can easily expand to surrounding properties and cause significant damage even if the original property was not considered high risk.

Table 1: Residential Wildfire Risk for the Western U.S.

Wildfire Risk Level Wildfire Risk Score (1-100) Total Properties Total Estimated Reconstruction Value
Extreme 81-100 893,333 $218,758,051,071
High 61-80 919,392 $281,041,584,567
Moderate 51-60 367,629 $106,630,098,370
Low 1-50 26,745,212 $6,627,236,644,663
Total   28,925,566 $7,233,666,378,671

At the state level, California and Texas rank first and second for the total number of homes in the Extreme wildfire risk category due to a large number of residential properties in these states combined with the proximity of high-risk vegetation and terrain. Combining both the High and Extreme categories, California tops the list with 645,445 properties at risk, followed by Texas (532,317) and Colorado (195,601). Table 3 shows that California also has the highest RCV in each of the top two risk levels at more than $250 billion, followed by Texas and Colorado at almost $94 billion and $54 billion, respectively.

Table 2: Residential Wildfire Risk by State

State Extreme Risk (81-100) High Risk (61-80) Moderate Risk (51-60) Low Risk (1-50) Total
CA 263,152 382,293 136,913 8,322,108 9,104,466
TX 261,595 270,722 114,337 7,088,343 7,734,997
WA 18,323 14,272 7,891 2,255,954 2,296,440
AZ 26,782 28,882 11,375 2,023,488 2,090,527
CO 117,832 77,769 32,657 1,555,289 1,783,547
OR 80,261 50,413 22,977 1,139,502 1,293,153
OK 152 382 259 1,251,283 1,252,076
NV 6,325 7,556 1,249 876,382 891,512
UT 3,950 12,910 8,912 727,056 752,828
NM 38,911 24,318 8,453 540,335 612,017
ID 41,230 26,647 10,795 500,028 578,700
MT 29,902 21,079 10,182 274,441 335,604
WY 4,918 2,149 1,629 191,003 199,699

Table 3: Total Potential Reconstruction Cost Value from Wildfire Damage

State Extreme Risk (81-100) High Risk (61-80) Moderate Risk (51-60) Low Risk (1-50) Total
CA $90,261,926,369 $163,419,491,775 $56,195,773,817 $2,835,909,802,454 $3,145,786,994,415
TX $41,439,955,631 $52,423,286,410 $22,901,200,812 $1,357,724,967,788 $1,474,489,410,641
WA $3,920,761,193 $3,162,198,598 $1,704,136,494 $544,593,138,874 $553,380,235,159
CO $32,652,822,276 $21,568,699,324 $8,739,871,411 $360,918,038,781 $423,879,431,792
AZ $4,960,333,908 $5,492,929,057 $2,087,493,320 $375,574,787,244 $388,115,543,529
OR $16,123,418,127 $10,734,344,793 $4,764,234,407 $247,256,829,757 $278,878,827,084
NV $2,849,501,119 $3,393,079,994 $383,812,551 $223,751,993,091 $230,378,386,755
OK $25,285,117 $61,827,146 $39,547,502 $220,623,957,106 $220,750,616,871
UT $1,198,543,055 $4,313,715,812 $2,958,129,586 $163,055,827,123 $171,526,215,576
ID $9,663,737,893 $5,772,218,483 $2,415,315,545 $103,350,310,521 $121,201,582,442
NM $9,160,165,154 $5,537,242,318 $1,853,408,250 $103,812,378,714 $120,363,194,436
MT $6,552,904,199 $4,726,240,224 $2,263,044,015 $54,701,842,363 $68,244,030,801
WY $948,697,040 $436,310,633 $324,130,660 $35,962,770,847 $37,671,909,180

Of the 258 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSA) that were analyzed based on wildfire risk, Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. ranks first for the most number of homes at Extreme risk with 51,775 properties falling into this category, followed by Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, Calif. (41,937) and Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo. (33,226). In terms of RCV, Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, Calif. edges out Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. by almost 1 million dollars at $16.4 billion compared with more than $15.3 billion.

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