MCAD Industry View – An August 2009 Update

Reseller revenue was $47 million, or 22% of total revenue. This represented a drop of 28% from a year earlier, and a drop of over 17% sequentially. Revenue from direct sales was $169 million, accounting for 78% of the total. This was a decrease of 3.6% year-over-year, but a bump of 0.5% from the prior quarter.

Net income for the quarter was $3.8 million, a drop of 74% from the $14.4 million in the same quarter a year ago and a drop of 47% from the $7.2 million in the preceding quarter.

C. Richard Harrison, chairman and chief executive officer, commented, “On a constant currency and non-GAAP basis, our total Q3 revenue was down 11% compared to last year, which in this challenging economy highlights the stability provided by our maintenance and services businesses. Importantly, on a sequential basis we are seeing a number of positive data points: 1) total revenue is stabilizing, 2) we delivered license revenue growth in all of our major geographies except Japan, 3) active maintenance paying seats are up, driven by Windchill seat growth, and 4) we won three additional strategically important “domino” accounts during Q3.”

G5 MCAD Vendor Stock Performances

Table 7 reveals that the combined stock prices of the covered MCAD vendors fell in absolute terms 33% year-over-year, but rose 22% sequentially. On average the combined stock prices fell over 34% year-over-year, but increased over 27% relative to the just prior quarter. The stock prices of all the MCAD vendors tumbled at least 25% year-over-year. The steepest decliner was Autodesk at -43%. ANSYS and MSC.Software fell over 30%, while Dassault Systemes and PTC dropped more than 25%.

The situation changed dramatically on a sequential basis. All the MCAD vendors saw stock price increases between 19% and 25% from Q1 to Q2 2009. ANSYS (+25%) was the percentage leader while Dassault Systemes (+19%) brought up the rear.

This MCAD stock performance compares to a year-over-year decline more than 25% for the average of the major indexes, and a rise of 17% versus the previous quarter. See Table 8.

Forecast Guidance from Individual MCAD Providers

Of those MCAD vendors giving guidance for the next quarter, only ANSYS projects year-over-year revenue growth at 3.3%. Autodesk and PTC forecast significant revenue falloff at -32% and -20% respectively. Dassault predicts a pickup in euros, but not in dollars.

As guidance ANSYS expects revenue in the next quarter to be in the range of $123.4 million to $129.4 million, compared to $122 million both in the quarter just reported and in the third quarter of 2008. For the fiscal year ANSYS expects revenue to be in the range of $510 million to $528 million, versus $478 million in the previous year.

As guidance Autodesk expect net revenue for the next quarter to be in the range of $400 million and $420 million, compared to $415 million in the quarter just reported, and compared to $607 million in the same quarter a year earlier.

As guidance Dassault Systemes revenue objectives for the next quarter are in the range of €285 to €300 million or $427 million to $450 million, compared to $423 million in the quarter just reported and compared to $470 million in the third quarter last year. The objectives for the year are €1.76 to €1.91 billion, or $1.875 to $1.920 billion versus $1.962 billion a year earlier. Objectives are based upon exchange rate assumptions for the 2009 third quarter of US$1.50 per €1.00 and JPY140 per €1.00 and a full year average of US$1.42 per €1.00 and JPY134 per €1.00.last year.

Thibault de Tersant, DS Senior Executive Vice President and CFO, commented, “As we move into the second half of the year, we are narrowing our full year revenue objective range but otherwise holding the mid-point unchanged on a constant currency basis. Similarly we are narrowing our EPS objective range. Given the strengthening of the Euro we think it is appropriate to update our US dollar and Japanese yen exchange rates assumptions in comparison to the Euro, and therefore are adjusting our reported revenue range and earnings per share, accordingly.”

As guidance PTC expects revenue in the next quarter to be in the range of $235 to $245 million, compared to $226 million inn the quarter just reported and compared to $300 million in the same quarter last year. The company expects revenue for fiscal 2009 to be approximately $931 million, versus $1,070 million a year ago.

Neil Moses, chief financial officer, commented that “Looking forward to Q4, we are initiating guidance of $235 to $245 million in revenue. Consequently, we are now targeting FY’09 revenue of approximately $931 million.”


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About the Authors:

Since 1996, Dr. Russ Henke has been president of HENKE ASSOCIATES, a San Francisco Bay Area high-tech business & management consulting firm. The number of client companies for Henke Associates now numbers more than forty. During his corporate career, Henke operated sequentially on "both sides" of MCAE/MCAD and EDA, as a user and as a vendor. He's a veteran corporate executive from Cincinnati Milacron, SDRC, Schlumberger Applicon, Gould Electronics, ATP, and Mentor Graphics.

Henke is a Fellow of the Society of Manufacturing Engineers (SME) and served on the SME International Board of Directors. He is also a member of the IEEE and a Life Fellow of ASME International. In April 2006, Dr. Henke received the 2006 Lifetime Achievement Award from The CAD Society, presented by CAD Society president Jeff Rowe at COFES2006 in Scottsdale, AZ. In February 2007, Henke became affiliated with Cyon Research's select group of experts on business and technology issues as a Senior Analyst. This Cyon Research connection aids and supplements Henke's ongoing, independent consulting practice (HENKE ASSOCIATES).

An affiliate of the HENKE ASSOCIATES team since 2001, LA-based Dr. John R. (Jack) Horgan co-authored this August 2009 MCAD Industry Commentary. Dr. Horgan's prior corporate career has included executive positions at Applicon, Aries Technology, CADAM and MICROCADAM, as well as a stint at IBM. Dr. Horgan is also an editor of EDAcafé Weekly.

Since May 2003 the authors have now published a total of eighty (80) independent articles on MCAD, PLM, EDA and Electronics IP on IBSystems' MCADCafè and EDACafè. Further information on HENKE ASSOCIATES, and URL's for past Commentaries, are available at March 31, 2009 marked the 13th Anniversary of the founding of HENKE ASSOCIATES.


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Review Article
  • Back on Meds? October 06, 2009
    Reviewed by 'Maxim Ratiovich'
    Looks like the authors are back on their medication. No diatribes about the government or how they'd personally been abused by the financial markets!
    I suggest that this report is much more what people expect from an industry survey. Wondering what I am talking about? Read the previous few releases of this MCAD Industry View.
    Example from March '09:"The U.S. is now in its deepest economic slowdown since the 1930's. Bush 43 and his administration bequeathed monumental problems for President Obama and the rest of us to overcome. The downward spiral has tremendous momentum and it’ll be very hard to reverse.
    As a giant first step, President Obama and his fellow Democrats muscled a $787 billion Stimulus Bill through Congress in mid-February 2009U, despite nearly universal Republican opposition, and despite the fact that Republican policies (of deregulation, deficit spending, lower taxes, needless wars like IRAQ, etc.) were the very policies that got the economy in trouble in the first place. Worst of all, many Republican politicians have said that they are hoping that the now lawful Stimulus Bill fails, thereby hurting millions more Americans, just so that “the GOP might gain congressional seats in 2010.”

      One person of 2 found this review helpful.

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