GISCafe Industry Predictions for 2024 – Unmanned Experts

By Keven Gambold , Co-founder and CEO, Unmanned Experts 

Keven Gambold

Let me start with a reality that impacts us far more than it should: 2024 is an Election Year. In the current hyperpolarization of U.S. politics, this mere fact should weigh significantly in any U.S. forecasts for the coming 12 months, and not positively so, I am afraid. With that said, here is an attempt to at least find the cloud linings, be they silver or not:

The small UAS market has been buoyed by Federal-level efforts to rebuild the Military-Industrial manufacturing base, with exciting programs such as the DoD’s Replicator and DARPA’s REMA. Although details are sparse to date, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some contracts awarded by the end of the year, and a significant capability available in 2025. However, if only the Prime’s win, and these go the ‘exclusive’ (read ‘rare and expensive’) route of the Blue UAS program, then how useful this might be is up for debate. The rapid growth of ‘last-mile’ delivery live operations, such as Wing and Drone-Up, is extremely inspiring, however, a lack of any true ‘Part 108-type’ BVLOS rule is a major sticking point for uptake and scaling for these services.

Now UTM might be a different story. The FAA has renewed interest in this two-year dormant topic, with the UTM Implementation Plan, the Texas Key Site, and various RFIs, as well as the NASA/FAA ACERO program. Some states (e.g. Ohio) have selected a State-wide USS, and although many of the players have ‘merged’, there may be opportunities for revenue in the coming year. BVLOS will be key, but the rarity of it, and the uncertainty of waiver requirements, is still stifling this industry as well.

Lots of exciting news in the AAM space, including the Chinese certification of a passenger-carrying ‘drone’ in FY22, which might provide hope or stimulation for stakeholders looking at steep FAA/DoD certification pathways. NASA and FAA have agreed upon likely AAM/UAM CONOPS, and both are reaching out to industry for RDT&E assistance, which is promising. A National AAM Center of Excellence opened late in FY22 in Ohio, and the NASA National Campaign looks to be restarting under the Advanced Mobility Pathfinder team. Many groups are investigation industry-led standards in the multiple novel fields of autonomous, electric, urban air transportation. The eVTOL OEMs are taking various routes to ‘turn a dime’, but certification is the roadblock, and is unlikely to clear for most before FY26 IMHO.

In the Autonomy field, the DoD seems to be stepping up ‘Networked, Collaborative, Autonomous’ work for loyal wingmen and swarms, and numerous companies are advertising this ‘plug and play’ capability in their products. The videos coming out of Ukraine are providing significant motivation to catch up with the use of large numbers of small, semi-autonomous systems in the modern battlespace.

Those self-same videos have also lit a fire under Counter-UAS interest both home and abroad. Many U.S. firms are having their equipment operationally tested in combat through security assistance programs, and I would anticipate some significant orders of a slew of such capabilities to protect U.S. and OCONUS-based assets in the very near future. The threat is clearly very real.

So, in summary for the prospects in FY24: The DoD may be the best place for requirements, money, and scaling opportunities, but politics will take a bite out of all the above. Sit tight, it may get bumpy…

About Author:

Keven Gambold completed 21 years of active-duty service with the Royal Air Force as a front-line combat pilot, logging 1500 hours in Tornado GR4 fast-jets, and another 1500 hours of unmanned combat missions and two deployments to Iraq. In his subsequent role as Director for the Guild of Air Pilots and Air Navigators (North America)’s Technical Aviation and Safety Committee, Keven has published peer-reviewed papers on UAS operations in the civil sector, in addition to being an active member of both RTCA and ISO. Keven has chaired several global UAS Conferences and Workshops and has written and broadcast numerous Webinars and authored a number of papers, chapters and books. Keven has also written and taught numerous international UAS training courses. With a Masters in Aeronautical Operations and a Commercial Pilots License, he is the co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of Unmanned Experts Inc.

Category: GIS Industry Predictios

This entry was posted on Saturday, January 13th, 2024 at 2:13 pm. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.