The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Rises Again To All Time High

NEW YORK, Aug. 29, 2017 — (PRNewswire) — S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for June 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices' housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in June, up from 5.7% the previous month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.9% annual increase, down from 5.0% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a 5.7% year-over-year gain, the same as the previous month.

Seattle, Portland, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In June, Seattle led the way with a 13.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Portland with 8.2%, and Dallas with a 7.7% increase. Nine cities reported greater price increases in the year ending June 2017 versus the year ending May 2017. 

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.9% in June. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both reported a 0.7% increase in June. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.4% month-over-month increase. The 10-City Composite remained stagnant with no month-over-month increase. The 20-City Composite posted a 0.1% month-over-month increase. All 20 cities reported increases in June before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, 14 cities saw prices rise.

ANALYSIS

"The trend of increasing home prices is continuing," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Price increases are supported by a tight housing market. Both the number of homes for sale and the number of days a house is on the market have declined for four to five years. Currently the months-supply of existing homes for sale is low, at 4.2 months. In addition, housing starts remain below their pre-financial crisis peak as new home sales have not recovered as fast as existing home sales."

"Rising prices are the principal factor driving affordability down. However, other drivers of affordability are more favorable: the national unemployment rate is down, and the number of jobs created continues to grow at a robust pace, rising to close to 200,000 per month. Wages and salaries are increasing, maintaining a growth rate a bit ahead of inflation. Mortgage rates, up slightly since the end of 2016, are under 4%. Given current economic conditions and the tight housing market, an immediate reversal in home price trends appears unlikely."

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.


2006 Peak

2012 Trough

Current

Index

Level

Date

Level

Date

From
Peak (%)

Level

From
Trough (%)

From
Peak (%)

National

184.62

Jul-06

134.00

Feb-12

-27.4%

192.60

43.7%

4.3%

20-City

206.52

Jul-06

134.07

Mar-12

-35.1%

200.54

49.6%

-2.9%

10-City

226.29

Jun-06

146.45

Mar-12

-35.3%

213.86

46.0%

-5.5%

Table 2 below summarizes the results for June 2017. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.


June 2017

June/May

May/April

1-Year

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

Change (%)

Atlanta

138.90

0.6%

0.9%

5.3%

Boston

202.16

0.7%

0.7%

6.2%

Charlotte

149.53

0.8%

0.9%

6.0%

Chicago

140.25

0.9%

1.0%

3.2%

Cleveland

115.37

0.6%

1.3%

2.9%

Dallas

177.87

0.8%

0.7%

7.7%

Denver

199.89

0.8%

0.9%

7.6%

Detroit

116.03

1.5%

1.1%

7.6%

Las Vegas

162.37

1.0%

1.4%

7.3%

Los Angeles

263.57

0.7%

1.0%

5.6%

Miami

225.12

0.4%

0.8%

5.0%

Minneapolis

162.10

1.0%

1.1%

5.7%

New York

190.38

0.6%

0.4%

3.9%

Phoenix

169.94

0.8%

0.6%

5.8%

Portland

221.75

0.9%

1.3%

8.2%

San Diego

241.96

0.9%

1.0%

7.1%

San Francisco

242.30

0.7%

1.0%

6.1%

Seattle

229.68

1.4%

1.8%

13.4%

Tampa

195.61

0.5%

1.2%

6.9%

Washington

222.52

0.7%

0.7%

3.1%

Composite-10

213.86

0.7%

0.8%

4.9%

Composite-20

200.54

0.7%

0.9%

5.7%

U.S. National

192.60

0.9%

1.1%

5.8%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic



Data through June 2017




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