The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 20.4% annual gain in April, down from 20.6% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 19.7%, up from 19.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 21.2% year-over-year gain, up from 21.1% in the previous month.
Tampa, Miami, and Phoenix reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in April. Tampa led the way with a 35.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Miami with a 33.3% increase, and Phoenix with a 31.3% increase. Nine of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending April 2022 versus the year ending March 2022.
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 2.1% month-over-month increase in April, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 2.2% and 2.3%, respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.5%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.8%.
In April, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.
"April 2022 showed initial (although inconsistent) signs of a deceleration in the growth rate of U.S. home prices," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "The National Composite Index rose by 20.4% for the 12 months ended April 2022; this represents a slight deceleration from March's 20.6% reading. The 10- and 20-City Composites were up 19.7% and 21.2%, respectively, modestly ahead of their gains in March. Despite the deceleration of the National Composite and the modest acceleration for the 10- and 20-City Composites, these growth rates are extremely strong by historical standards – at or above the 99th percentile in all three cases.
"We continue to observe very broad strength in the housing market, as all 20 cities notched double-digit price increases for the 12 months ended in April. April's price increase ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for every city, and in the top decile for 19 of them. In contrast with the past five months, when prices in most cities accelerated, in April only nine cities saw prices rise faster than they had done in March. There's a regional pattern among the nine, as all five cities in our South composite (Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Miami, and Tampa) are represented there.
"Tampa (+35.8%) was the fastest growing city for the second consecutive month, with Miami (+33.3%) and long-time leader Phoenix (+31.3%) in second and third positions. Prices were strongest in the South (+30.6%) and Southeast (+30.5%). Even the comparatively weak Midwest (+13.8%) and Northeast (+14.0%) showed double-digit gains.
"We noted last month that mortgage financing has become more expensive as the Federal Reserve ratchets up interest rates, a process that had only just begun when April data were gathered. A more-challenging macroeconomic environment may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer."
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.